Week 4 Matchup to Target
Leonard Fournette vs. Javonte Williams (+1.5)
We picked a QB battle in the Thursday Night game which was ultimately voided due to Tua’s exit. For the Sunday slate we’re moving to the Running Back position with Leonard Fournette going up against Javonte Williams (+1.5).
Williams faces the Raiders whose defense sports a modest 3.8 yards per carry on the season while Fournette gets the Chief's defense and their 3.6 yards per carry. Not a huge difference. Where you can find an edge is in usage and that favors Leonard Fournette….by a lot. Through three weeks, the Broncos have given Williams 56% of the snaps, 48% of the rushing attempts, and 25% of the attempts inside the five-yard line. Melvin Gordon has received 37% of the snaps, 43% of the rushing attempts, and an astounding 75% of the inside the five attempts. Mike Boone is even seeing the field receiving 11% of the snaps and 25% of the long down and distance snaps (why??).
Meanwhile, Fournette is dominating the Tampa Bay backfield with 85% of the snaps, 73% of the rushing attempts, 83% of the long down and distance snaps, and 100% of the attempts inside the five (he’s yet to score but the touchdowns are coming…he promised!). He’s on the field for nearly every offensive snap and his floor and ceiling are higher than Williams regardless of game script. The Bucs matchup with Kansas City currently has an implied point total of 47.5 and Chris Godwin, Russell Gage, and Julio Jones are all questionable going into Sunday. All of this has me taking Fournette in his head-to-head with Williams despite the point and a half.
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