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Week 4 TNF Targets

MIA @ CIN (-3.5) o/u 47

We went 3-2 last week, in a week I’d rather not re-live. I even inadvertently went head-to-head with @FFStalder and lost! The Chiefs also lost to the Indianapolis Colts, the Jacksonville Jaguars won….again, and the Miami Dolphins beat the AFC East favorite Buffalo Bills. We’re hoping for better luck with this next rounds of picks and I think the Bengals white color rush jerseys may be just what I need this week!

TopProp play: Joe Burrow > Tua Tagovailoa (+3)

This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup features the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins. This is a short week and Miami is traveling from Florida where much of the headlines have been about Hurricane Ian. Tua is also dealing with an ankle and “back” injury headed into this matchup and Jaylen Waddle missed practice on Monday with a hip injury. Both are on track to play but those issues factor into my pick for this game.

I’m taking Burrow over Tua (+1.5) for multiple reasons including the pace of play for each of these teams. The Bengals are averaging 71 plays per game (4th in the NFL) while the Dolphins average just 56 (27th). Cincinnati also passes 80% of the time when within 3 points of their opponents, 14 percentage points higher than Miami. The additional plays should create more opportunity for Burrow to rack up fantasy points. An additional factor is the Dolphins stout run defense. Miami is allowing just 3.46 yards per carry and even those numbers are inflated by Lamar Jackson’s elite running in week two. The Bengals are averaging an AFC-low 3.1 yards per carry. If Cincinnati can’t lean on the run game, conventional wisdom tells us they should be forced to pass more throughout the game. Finally, I think it bears repeating here that the Bengals will be in their white color rush jerseys for this matchup. Yes please.

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