Welcome to week 14! We hate it here….There’s six teams on Bye this week and a plethora of new injuries from the weekend of football for us to try and navigate through. Last week’s matchups were mostly a success though with the Chiefs and Bengals scoring 51 points and the Raiders and Chargers getting to 47. This week, I’m looking at another two matchups; MIN @ DET and MIA @ LAC.
MIN @ DET (-2.5) over/under 51
The first matchup is between the Vikings and Lions. This game has an over/under set at 51 and has a lot of ingredients for a shoot out. Both teams rank inside the top six in the NFL in beating their overs this season. Additionally, neither of these teams find themselves inside the top-15 in defensive efficiency and both rank in the top-7 in points allowed to the QB position. The Lions are also giving up 31.3 half-PPR fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position with Minnesota even worse at 32.4 per game. Given the soft defenses, I like a few matchups for this one at the wide receiver and tight end positions.
The first of which is Justin Jefferson over Stefon Diggs. The matchup is very receiver friendly against the Lions and the implied point total is high. We can appreciate both of those things. Stefon Diggs on the other hand gets a matchup with the New York Jets. The Jets are the third worst matchup for receivers and Sauce Gardner may have something to do with that.
Play: Justin Jefferson > Stefon Diggs
I like Amon-Ra St. Brown this week over DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals get the New England Patriots who are allowing just 25.1 half-PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers. It’s the 9th worst matchup and with St. Brown drawing the Vikings, a much softer matchup, I feel good about a ceiling week for Amon-Ra.
Play: Amon-Ra St. Brown > DeAndre Hopkins
The tight end position continues to be a desolate wasteland and the boldest I could get this week was Hockenson over Andrews. The Lions are the fifth best matchup for opposing tight ends and the Ravens offense is likely going into week 14 without Lamar Jackson which is a hit for an already struggling offense. Andrews is the TE2 on the year but despite Hockenson being traded mid-season to a new team, TJ ranks higher than Andrews in points per game and has a cleaner bill of health going into a matchup with a much higher implied point total. There’s also the REVENGE narrative there that we all love!
Play: TJ Hockenson > Mark Andrews
MIA (-1) @ LAC over/under 51.5
The next matchup is between the flashy Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers. This one has an over/under of 51.5, and if you’ve seen these offenses play then you may know why. Conversely, if you’ve seen these defenses play, then you may know why! On the year, the Chargers have the 23rd ranked defense in terms of DVOA including the 30th ranked run defense. They stop no one on the ground. The Dolphins are 17th on the year, which is decent, but their pass defense ranks 28th in terms of efficiency. We know both teams can light up the scoreboard. We know both defenses have their vulnerabilities. Seems like more of those ingredients for a high scoring affair which gives me confidence in a handful of matchups for this one.
The Chargers are the 11th best matchups for opposing QBs and given the explosiveness of Miami you can’t not be excited to play Tua this week. I’d put him up against Dak Prescott as Dallas gets the Houston Texans. Houston is only giving up 11.9 fantasy points per game to the QB position and it makes sense. Teams don’t have to force the issue to win comfortably against the Texans.
Play: Tua Tagovailoa > Dak Prescott
Over the last four weeks, CeeDee Lamb has averaged more fantasy points per game than Tyreek Hill. However, the Cowboys get the Texans this weekend and shouldn’t need to do much on offense to get a win. Additionally, the Texans are the fourth worst matchup for the receiver position in 2022. This is pretty much a Tua/Hill stack over Dak/Lamb and I fully endorse it.
Play: Tyreek Hill > CeeDee Lamb
Miami is middle of the pack against the running back position this year and given Austin Ekeler’s elite usage as a receiving option out of the backfield (85 receptions), his floor is tremendously higher than your prototypical back. I like Ekeler this week against Saquon Barkley who gets the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly was getting run on excessively with great success before signing DT Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. They also got rookie Jordan Davis back and did a great job containing Derrick Henry in a blowout win against the Tennessee Titans last week. Give me the hands of Ekeler over the quads of Bakley this week!
Play: Austin Ekeler > Saquon Barkley
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