Welcome to week 13! Hopefully you were able to recharge over the holiday weekend with friends and family while watching football. Which we had a lot of last week with all 32 NFL teams playing! For week 12, I highlighted two games to target for fantasy, DFS, etc. The first of those two games was between the Bills and the Lions and that one featured two high powered offenses that were able to get to 53 points. We’ll take that on a short week for both of those teams! The second matchup was between the Chargers and Cardinals. Those teams combined to score 49 points in their game that had an over/under at 47.5.
This week I’ve got another two matchups I’m highlighting; KC @ CIN and LAC @ LV.
KC (-3) @ CIN over/under 51
The first matchup features the AFC West leading Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Cincinnati Bengals in a game with the highest over/under on the week at 51. Over the course of the past four weeks, there have been only two teams with a higher offensive efficiency rating than the Kansas City Chiefs. One of those teams is the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals not only top the Chiefs in that statistic but they are first and that’s without Ja’Marr Chase who they may be getting back this week.
These teams aren’t shutting any elite offenses down any time soon either as they both rank middle of the pack in defensive efficiency since week nine. We’re typically looking for bad defenses here but given that both offenses are playing at an elite level, I still feel confident about getting to the over and confident about a handful of plays from this matchup.
Since week nine, the only QB to average more fantasy points per game than Patrick Mahomes is Justin Fields. Justin Fields is nursing a separated shoulder which forced him to miss week 12 and the next QB behind Mahomes (Jalen Hurts) averages 4+ points fewer per game. I’d feel pretty good putting Mahomes up against everyone at the position.
Play: Patrick Mahomes > The field
The tight end position is still in shambles. Mark Andrews is recovering from a mid-season injury that forced him to miss time, Kyle Pitts is on the IR, Dallas Goedert is on the IR, and Zach Ertz is out for the season. Travis Kelce has continued his dominance at the position averaging 19.7 points per game across the last four games. The next closest TE playing this week is Dalton Shultz who is averaging 11.7 points per game. It’s Travis Kelce or bust this week for me.
Play: Travis Kelce > The field
I like Joe Burrow this week over Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins travel to San Francisco to take on one of the league’s top defensive units. The 49ers rank third across the last four weeks in defensive efficiency and are coming off of a shut out of the New Orleans Saints. They also are the 6th toughest matchup for quarterbacks, allowing just 14.2 fantasy points per game this season.
Play: Joe Burrow > Tua Tagovailoa
LAC (-3) @ LV over/under 48
The second matchup I’ve got this week is between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders. The over/under for this divisional matchup opened up at 48 (currently at 50.5), the third highest on the week. Both teams are top-15 in points scored and top-10 in passing yards this season. Another positive indicator for us is where these teams rank in beating the over; Chargers rank 11th beating their over 50% of the time with the Raiders ranking 5th beating it 60% of the time.
On defense, these teams both rank 23rd or worse since week nine in defensive efficiency and 23rd or worse in points allowed on the season. It hasn’t been a great showing for either team on that side of the ball but those are the ingredients we like to see when predicting matchups to hit their over. As a result, you can feel good about multiple head-to-heads going into the weekend.
You love Herbert’s arm, you love his grit playing through injury, and you love his matchup this week against the Raiders! Las Vegas is the fourth best matchup for quarterbacks this year as they’re giving up 21.3 fantasy points per game. I like Herbert this week against Geno Smith who gets the Los Angeles Rams. A team that ranks top-10 against quarterbacks this year and also a team that won’t be punching back on offense the way the Raiders will be able to.
Play: Justin Herbert > Geno Smith
There aren’t many teams that have allowed over 1,600 rushing yards this season, but the Chargers are one of them ranking 27th against the run. Additionally, the Chargers are the third best matchup for running backs giving up 27.8 fantasy points per game. I like Jacobs this week against Saquon Barkley. Barkley and the Giants get to face the Washington Commanders who are the fifth worst matchup for running backs allowing just 18.8 fantasy points per game each week.
Play: Josh Jacobs > Saquon Barkley
Since week nine, there hasn’t been a more reliable or higher scoring WR than DaVante Adams. He ranks first in points scored (95.2) and points per game (23.8). The Chargers are above average against wide receivers giving up 31.1 fantasy points per game, but volume is king and Adams has received over a 30% target share on the year. He’s also pretty talented and this should be a week you can put him head-to-head against anyone.
Play: Davante Adams > The field
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