There are few things in life that are a guarantee; death, taxes, and the Lions giving up a bunch of points to help me hit the over! For week 10, I highlighted JAX @ KC and DET @ CHI as matchups to target. The Lions and the Bears combined to score 61 points while the Jaguars and Chiefs put up just 44. You want to see more out of the Chiefs but they went into the weekend without Mecole Hardman and lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling during the game. Perhaps they let off the gas to prevent further injury…that’s my alibi and I’m sticking to it!
The week 11 matchups I’d like to present to you come wrapped in the finest of wrapping paper and include the six-inch ribbon on top! This week I’m highlighting KC @ LAC and CHI @ ATL.
KC (-6.5) @ LAC over/under 50
The first matchup is an AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers. The over/under opened up at 50 which is the highest on the week and you’ve got two bottom-half defenses in terms of efficiency taking the field in this one. We know Kansas City can score their share of points as they remain the top-ranked offense in total offensive DVOA and have the top-scoring offense in the league. The question is whether the Chargers can keep pace. Despite missing his top pass catchers for the majority of the season, Justin Herbert has a top-10 PFF passer grade and there is optimism that the Chargers could be getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back at practice Wednesday.
There is some uncertainty at the wide receiver position for both teams at this moment, so I’ve only got recommendations at the QB, RB, and TE positions for this one.
Play: Patrick Mahomes > Josh Allen
Mahomes is the model of elite production and consistency at the quarterback position. Mahomes has scored 20+ fantasy points in seven of nine weeks and 30+ points in four games this season. He’s finished as the QB4 or higher in five weeks so far in 2022. Finally, since week six only Justin Fields has averaged more fantasy points per game than Mahomes.
Play: Travis Kelce > ALL TE’s
The tight end landscape is ugly this season and Travis Kelce leads all tight ends in Half-PPR points by a wide margin (50+). Kelce has averaged 5+ Half-PPR fantasy points per game more than the next highest player, Mark Andrews (who’s battling through injury). I’m taking Kelce against the TE field until further notice.
Play: Austin Ekeler > ALL RB’s
At running back, I like Austin Ekeler over the field. He is the overall RB1 in 2022 and averages 19.8 fantasy points per game. The Chiefs rank 17th in rushing defense so there should be room to run but Ekeler really butters his bread in the pass game (there’s no way I’m using that phrase correctly…). He leads all backs with 67 receptions on 81 targets. On the year, Ekeler has a 52% rushing share, 21% target share, and received ALL of the short down and distance and inside the five attempts in week 10. He’s the steadiest of the steady producers at the position.
CHI @ ATL (-3) over/under 49.5
The second matchup I’m unwrapping here is between the Chicago Bears and the Atlanta Falcons. The Bears and the Falcons have horribly bad defenses. They’ve allowed the 29th and 30th most points this season, respectively. Both teams are also in the bottom four in terms of defensive efficiency.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Bears have been a completely different team from week seven on. They’ve scored 33 points, 29, 32, and 30 since the offense caught fire. It’s mostly been predicated on what Justin Fields has been able to do on the ground (465 rushing yards and five touchdowns), but it’s led to a lot of points nonetheless.
I like this matchup because regardless of who jumps out to a lead, both teams should find little resistance against the opposing defense. I feel confident in two plays in this one and that’s at the QB and RB positions.
Play: Justin Fields > ALL QB’s
Since week seven, there has been no better fantasy QB than Justin Fields. He leads the league in fantasy points scored by nearly 40 points! He’s averaging 33.4 points per game. His matchup against the Falcons should be a continuation of what we saw against the Lions last week, lots of rushing and lots of points. I’m taking Fields over the field at QB.
Play: David Montgomery > James Conner
The Bears lead the league in rushing on the year by a wide margin. I can’t stress enough just how wide….maybe I can, it’s 400+ yards over the next team! The Falcons are 25th this season in rushing defense. A recipe for a potential big day for Montgomery. Additionally, Khalil Herbert exited week 10 with a hip injury and did not return. His status is currently unknown but something to monitor. Herbert has a 35% rushing attempt share on the year which could be mostly absorbed by Montgomery if he misses time.
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