Welcome to week ten. You’ve made it to the second half of the NFL season! Last week, I highlighted SEA @ ARI and BAL @ NO for matchups to target. The Seahawks and Cardinals managed 52 points with the Ravens and Saints scoring just 40. We topped the over in the Seahawks game but missed the mark in the Ravens game by nine points. The matchup would have had a lot more juice had Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman played, but injuries kept them out of week nine (Bateman will miss the remainder of the season). Regardless, we’re on to week ten and I’m highlighting another two matchups this week; JAX @ KC and DET @ CHI.
JAX @ KC over/under 49.5
The Jaguars and Chiefs have the highest over/under this week at 49.5, so it should come as little surprise to see them included as a matchup to target. Jacksonville has the 31st ranked defense in terms of efficiency and they’re 25th in the league in passing yards allowed. All of which will pair nicely with the Chiefs top ranked offense per football outsiders. Kansas City also has the 24th ranked defense using the same efficiency metric.
The 49.5 over/under should be attainable and digging a bit further, the Jaguars will likely find success on the ground as the Chiefs have given up the fourth most rushing yards to this point. I like passing, rushing, and receiving options in this one.
Plays: Patrick Mahomes > Jalen Hurts, Travis Kelce > DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Etienne Jr. > Kenneth Walker lll
DET @ CHI over/under 48.5
In the second matchup, we’ve got the Lions traveling to Chicago where we currently have an over/under of 48.5. As it has been ALL season, the Lions rank at the bottom of the NFL in defensive DVOA. They’re 29th overall, 27th in passing, and 31st in rushing. The Bears rank middle of the pack in defense but since they shipped off Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, they’ve allowed 49 points to the Cowboys and 35 to the Dolphins. Detroit with their 12th ranked offense should be able to score their share of points in this one.
Chicago’s offense has been on an absolute tear. In weeks one through six, the Bears averaged just 15 points per game. Since then, they’ve averaged 31 points per game, and Justin Fields has been the overall QB1 in fantasy, scoring 21 more points than the next QB.
Decent to good offenses and bad defenses are typically a recipe for points. That’s what I’m banking on in this one.
Plays: Justin Fields > Jalen Hurts, Khalil Herbert > CEH, Amon-Ra St. Brown > Allen Lazard
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