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Sunday Scaries: Week 14

Week 14 Matchups:

Tyreek Hill vs. Austin Ekeler +1.5

Get out your popcorn, this feature presentation on Sunday will be a lot of fun. The Miami Dolphins travel to Los Angeles and take on the Chargers on Sunday night football in what projects to be the highest game total of Week 14.

Tyreek Hill has continued his dominance. He's the WR4 in fantasy points per game and WR3 in total fantasy points. He succeeds at all facets of the game. He commands the #1 target rate among WRs, he earns the most deep targets among WRs, he leads all receivers in receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch, and yards per route run. This matchup is also a juicy one as the Dolphins' OL projects to have a 32% Pass Block Advantage over the Chargers' DL, and Hill's WR/CB matchup is 97%, per PFF (50% is average). With Jaylen Waddle nursing a fibula injury, Hill will get peppered with a variety of targets against the Chargers.


Austin Ekeler is the RB2 in fantasy points, RB1 in targets & receptions, and has finished as a top-4 weekly scorer at the RB position five different weeks this season. He's made the most of his games without either Mike Williams and/ or Keenan Allen. In the only game on the season, however, where both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both played, Ekeler finished as the RB28 that week with only 4 targets. Both Allen & Williams are expected to play Sunday night, which doesn't bode well for Ekeler's upside. And, not that it matters as much for Ekeler, but the Miami Dolphins DL is projected to have a 53% Run Block Advantage, per PFF, over the LA Chargers' OL.


Final Pick: Tyreek Hill. Give me the bigger play ability player on what I expect to be a condensed target share. Not enough juice for me to get Ekeler there.


CeeDee Lamb vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown +1

As former President George W. Bush once famously gaffed, "Fool me once, shame on you. If you fool me, can't fool me again." Amon-Ra St. Brown will not fool me again. This kid is the real deal. He's WR2 in target rate, only behind Tyreek Hill. He's WR5 in receptions, WR7 in yards after the catch, and WR6 in fantasy points-- despite missing most of two games due to injury. St. Brown has finished as the WR3 or better overall on a week three different times in the season. And his matchup is particularly juicy. The Minnesota Vikings allow the most receiving yards to opposing WRs. But St. Brown's specific matchup this week is a projected 100% advantage (50% is average) vs. Minnesota's CB C Sullivan. And, from a macro-view, the DET-MIN game total is among the highest of the week.


CeeDee Lamb, however, has certainly leveled up this season. The former 17th overall pick is the WR3 in target rate, 5th in target share, and 7th in yards per route run among WRs. He's also scored 6 TDs on the season. Lamb is the WR7 in total fantasy points on the year and has finished as a top-8 WR in three different weeks. He also projects for a 93% WR/CB advantage against Houston this week. Houston is the worst coverage-graded defensive unit in the NFL. However, the Texans allow the fewest WR TDs and the 4th fewest fantasy points to WRs. Why is that the case if they're so bad? It's because their run defense is also atrocious. Teams are opting to run instead of pass against the Texans due to game script and efficiency. The Cowboys are 17-point home favorites. What could go wrong?


Final Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown +1. The juice is a nice plus. Lamb probably has a good game, but I'll lean toward the elite pass-catcher in the game which could be a massive shootout instead of a slaughter.


D'Andre Swift vs. Jamaal Williams + 1.5

Jamaal Williams has been impressive this year. He's already set career highs in rush attempts, rush yards, total TDs, and is on pace to obliterate his previous fantasy ppg career high. He leads all RBs in RedZone touches and has been a battering ram near the goal line. However, we've seen his snap share dwindle down from 52% in Week 11, then to 41% in Week 12, and finally 29.7% in Week 13. With no targets or receptions since Week 8, Williams' fantasy value has been relying most significantly on TDs, and not rushing efficiency. Williams averages fewer than 4 ypc in each of the last 5 games, and averages 3.9 true yards per carry on the season. He's RB53 in yards created per touch. The Vikings are also stingy on the ground, grading out as the 2nd best Rush Defense unit, per PFF. They also allow less than 4 yards per carry as a unit to opposing RBs.


As for D'Andre Swift, we've progressively seen an ascension of work. Swift has increased from 30% snaps in Week 11 to 37% snaps in Week 12 to 51% snaps in Week 13. Swift tied his season high with 18 touches in Week 13 and totaled over 100 scrimmage yards against the Jaguars while also falling into the EndZone himself. Swift has finished as a top-6 RB in three of his 9 games this season, Swift is RB2 overall in yards created per touch, and RB3 in yards per touch. He's shifty with a 7.8% breakaway rate (RB8 overall) and also is a threat in the passing game, commanding a 14% target share. A dynamic RB like Swift is hard to keep down and, as I've mentioned earlier, this projects to be a high-scoring interdivisional matchup where the Lions have nothing to lose and everything to gain by using their star RB.


Final Pick: D'Andre Swift. Perhaps this is the week Jamaal Williams' TD luck runs out. Regardless, the coaching staff has shown increased confidence in Swift, as he's off the injury report entering Week 14.


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Week 13 Update:


Garrett Wilson +5.5 vs. Justin Jefferson. This W felt really nice. Jefferson didn't have a bad game going 7-45-1, but Garrett Wilson finished 8-162. Whoa.

Christian Watson vs. Chase Claypool +2. My Packers bias did not lead me astray in this matchup. Another W.

Christian Kirk +1.5 vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown. I got cute, and Trevor Lawrence suffered an injury. Tough L.

Running Season Record: 24-15.


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