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Sunday Scaries: Week 13

Week 13 Matchups:

Christian Kirk +1.5 vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown

Both Kirk and St. Brown square off on Sunday in Detroit as the Lions take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. This game projects to be one of the highest game totals on the week with a combination of good offense, bad defense, and a sprinkling of dome magic.

Christian Kirk, running routes primarily out of the slot for the Jaguars, ranks 3rd in TDs scored and 5th among all receivers in Red Zone targets. He's a trusted target when it comes to gotta-get-it downs. Kirk is also 12th among receivers in targets, 14th in receiving yards, and 15th in receptions. He's had three games this season finishing as a top-7 WR and ranks as the WR14 in fantasy points per game. The former 2nd round pick has found new life as a fantasy asset after signing a mega-deal in free agency this offseason.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has continued the dominance from late 2021 into the entirety of his healthy games in 2022. St. Brown, the WR10 in fantasy points per game, leads all WRs in target rate, is the WR4 in fantasy points per route run, WR6 in yards per route run, WR7 in receptions, and WR8 in yards after the catch. He's finished as the WR3 overall two weeks this season and has finished worse than WR29 once in his 7 healthy games. St. Brown averages 18.4 fantasy points per game at home this season. But rookie WR Jameson Williams may make his debut on Sunday and impact St. Brown's upside.

Final Pick: Christian Kirk +1.5. The Lions allow the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs on the season, and Jacksonville's OL has a projected 53% Pass Block ADV over DET's DL.

Christian Watson vs. Chase Claypool +2

Both Watson and Claypool are extremely athletic former 2nd round picks. Watson has scored 6 TDs in the last three games; but let's not forget Claypool scored 7 TDs in a seven game stretch, including a 3 TD game himself, during his own rookie year.

Claypool was traded at the 2022 deadline from the Pittsburgh Steelers for a future 2nd round pick. The Bears have slowly integrated Claypool into the offense. Claypool played between 31-44% of snaps each of his first three games in a Chicago uniform. During that 3 game stretch he caught 5 of 11 targets for only 32 yards. But in Week 12, facing star rookie Sauce Gardner, Claypool played 67% of snaps, ran his most routes for the Bears, and caught 2 passes for 51 yards on 5 targets. We should expect Claypool to continue to improve his usage in Week 13 against the Packers.

Christian Watson has been one of the hottest WRs in the NFL. He's finished as the WR3, WR8, and WR10 each of the last three weeks. While the TDs have been a nice boost, Watson has been converting deep targets. He's 10th among receivers in yards per target and yards per reception, and 20th in average depth of target. The Packers have been leveraging his speed and athleticism to hit on high-impact plays both downfield and in the End Zone. All of this production has come despite Aaron Rodgers dealing with a fracture in his hand, which has impacted Rodgers' accuracy. The Packers OL also hold a 32% PFF projected Pass Block ADV over the Bears; however, that may not be updated to reflect the absence of David Bakhtiari who will miss Sunday's game due to an appendectomy.

Final Pick: Christian Watson. While I'm intrigued by Claypool's increased usage, the Packers are also expected to get back De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker for this game. Remember, Rodgers "owns the Bears."

Garrett Wilson +5.5 vs. Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson keeps showing us why he was the WR1 in fantasy drafts this Fall. Jefferson has finished as the weekly WR2 or better five times this season. He had four such games in his previous two seasons (33 games). Jefferson has really leveled up his game in Kevin O'Connell's offense. He ranks first among WRs in RedZone Targets and Yards after the Catch-- extending and hitting the high-cash receptions. This will be a matchup worth monitoring, however, as Jefferson projects to line up the majority of his snaps against Sauce Gardner when on the outside. Opposing QBs have not targeted receivers much when lining up against Gardner, as Gardners' receivers have only been targeted 13 times over the last 4 games. Gardner has the highest CB DEF grade per PFF and has only allowed 1 TD against all season. Overall, the Jets only allow 22 fantasy points per game to opposing Wide Receiver corps on the season, 3rd stingiest in the league.

Garrett Wilson, the former 10th overall pick, has been crushing lately. Wilson has finished as the WR15 or better in three of the last four games. During those three games, he averages over 100 receiving yards, over 6 receptions per game, and is coming off a 2 TD game against Chicago. With a change at QB, Wilson immediately took advantage. Wilson's NFL Passer Rating when targeted was 143.2, 7th highest on the week, and his PFF receiving grade was 5th highest in Week 12. His matchup also projects to be high-upside. The Vikings allow the most receiving yards and 4th most fantasy points to WRs. Expect Wilson to move around the formation and the Jets manufacture targets for their budding superstar.

Final Pick: Garrett Wilson +5.5. This is the right amount of points to get me over Jefferson, though I do expect it to be close, high-scoring affair.

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Week 12 Update:

Just W's All around:

- Rachaad White Vs. D'Onta Foreman +2.5. White needed OT to eclipse this 2.5 point juice, but 9 receptions helped. W #1.

- Tee Higgins +4.5 vs. Tyreek Hill. Give Tyreek Hill the 4.5 points instead and it wouldn't have achieved Higgins' score. W #2.

-Travis Etienne Jr. +2 Vs. Kenneth Walker III. Etienne left this game early with a foot injury, and Walker cruised to 16.4 fantasy points. I'll take W #3 in anyway I can.

Running Season Record: 22-14.

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