Last week I complained at length about the lack of scoring in the NFL this season….but unlike Elijah Moore, this squeaky wheel got the grease! Scoring in week eight made it feel like we were back in 2021. The Falcons and Panthers scored a combined 71 points, the Dolphins and Lions nearly got to 60, the Cowboys and Bears hit 78, and the Cardinals and Vikings put up a combined 60! Both of the games I picked last week to hit their over did just that and we’re hoping to carry that momentum into week nine.
I’ve got three picks for this upcoming week of NFL action; Seattle @ Arizona, the Chargers @ Atlanta, and the Ravens @ the Saints.
SEA @ ARI o/u 49.5
Seattle and Arizona are set to square off in week nine and have an over/under set at 49.5. The Seahawks over is hitting 50% of the time with Arizona hitting 43% of the time in 2022. Both teams in this matchup are inside the top-14 this season in beating their implied point totals. Seattle is also 5th in the league in points above their projected point total at +5.4 and continue to be efficient on offense ranking 3rd in the league in offensive DVOA. I expect this to top or at least get close to the over which should provide us with plenty of head-to-head matchups to attack.
Play: Hopkins > Jefferson, Metcalf > Pittman Jr., Walker lll > CEH
LAC @ ATL o/u 48.5
The second matchup features the Chargers and Falcons. Los Angeles is beating their over 57% of the time with the Falcons at 62% of the time. Both teams are inside the top-9 this season in that stat. The Chargers and Falcons also both sit inside the top-8 in the NFL having scored a combined seven points above their projected point totals on the year. This game also features the 17th and 32nd ranked defenses in terms of efficiency. Lots of ingredients here for yards, touchdowns, and most importantly fantasy points.
Play: Herbert > Cousins, Ekeler > Henry
BAL @ NO o/u 48.5
The final matchup features the New Orleans Saints who just shut out the Las Vegas Raiders 24-0 and the Baltimore Ravens coming off a 27-22 win over the Tampa Bay Bucs. This season, the Saints have beaten their over 62% of the time, fourth best in the league and sit at +6.2 above their projected point total which is good for third in the NFL. Andy Dalton has averaged 23 fantasy points per game over the last two weeks with Alvin Kamara pacing the league in that same time span averaging 26 points per game. With the Saints new found success on offense and the Ravens top-5 offense in terms of efficiency, I believe the recipe for points is there for this Monday Night Football matchup.
Play: Lamar > Kyler, Kamara > Cook, Olave > Kirk
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