It’s week seven in the NFL and we couldn’t be more excited entering our Sunday slate of games. On Thursday, we got a high-scoring affair between the Arizona Cardinals and the New Orleans Saints. A whopping 76 points were scored in that one! That’s the highest total since week two and it beat that matchup by 25 points. For the Sunday slate of games, I’ve got two head-to-head matchups I’m targeting: Joe Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson and Tyreek Hill vs. Deebo Samuel.
Joe Burrow (+2) v. Lamar Jackson
The Baltimore Ravens get a home matchup with the Cleveland Browns this weekend. In this matchup, the Ravens have an implied point total of 26. Sportsbooks anticipate a decent day offensively for Baltimore and considering the Browns rank 31st in defensive DVOA it makes sense. The Ravens should be in a good spot and without JK Dobbins, Jackson should be in line to carry the load for Baltimore on the ground. Lamar has led the Ravens in rushing in four of six contests and has totaled 451 rushing yards to date. Additionally, Jackson is averaging 25.4 fantasy points per game while Joe Burrow is at 22.1.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals get a similar implied point total in their matchup with the Falcons, but what’s pushing me toward Lamar is his rushing floor and the return of Rashod Bateman. Bateman has logged limited practices all week and is projected to be on the field Sunday. That’s enough for me to take Jackson despite Burrow’s +2 edge in their head-to-head.
Play: Joe Burrow (+2) v. Lamar Jackson
Tyreek Hill v. Deebo Samuel (+1.5)
In this next head-to-head, I’ve got Tyreek Hill going up against Deebo Samuel. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return Sunday, which gives me additional confidence in this head-to-head. Hill has led the Dolphins in receiving in five of six weeks and totaled 177 receiving yards last week catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson. On the season, Tyreek is averaging 18.2 Half-PPR fantasy points per game while Deebo Samuel is at just 12.9. It shouldn’t come as a surprise as Tyreek is the centerpiece of that Dolphins offense while Deebo is sharing touches with players like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and now Christian McCaffrey who is projected to start Sunday.
Another factor here is the WR/CB matchups for each receiver. Tyreek enters the weekend with the top matchup advantage per PFF (92.8 vs. all PIT defenders) while Deebo Samuel is middle of the pack (56.6 vs. all KC defenders). Deebo gets the +1.5 edge, but I’m taking Tyreek Hill in this matchup.
Play: Tyreek Hill v. Deebo Samuel (+1.5)
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