This week is rough for picking high scoring games. The Bills, Vikings, Eagles, and Rams are all on Bye this week. That’s the 1st, 5th, and 14th ranked teams in offensive DVOA so far in 2022. We’ll miss them this week, but the games I’m looking at include the Falcons at the Bengals, Lions at Cowboys, and Seahawks at Chargers.
ATL @ CIN o/u 47.5
We’ll kick things off with the Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals. The Falcons have scored the 6th highest amount of points through six games while the Bengals sit at 14th. Atlanta is a low volume passing offense ranking 29th in average passing yards per game, but they’re getting it done with efficiency both in the pass and run games. They rank 7th overall in offensive DVOA, 13th in passing, but 1st overall in rushing. ItIt'ss difficult to admit, but they’re playing decent football right now and in week seven they get a Bengals defense that ranks just 16th in rushing DVOA on the defensive side. There should be plenty of opportunity there for the Falcons.
On the other side, the Bengals enter this matchup ranked just 25th in rushing yards per game. However, they’re passing the ball a ton ranking 7th in passing yards per game and 4th in passing touchdowns to this point. You know what you’re getting with the Bengals on offense and in this matchup the Falcons come in ranked 23rd in pass DVOA. That should be an area that Cincinnati can exploit.
The over/under is set at 47.5 and I think this game has a good chance at hitting that, but my focus is on the Bengals.
TopProp Play: Burrow > Goff, Chase > Lamb
DET @ DAL o/u 48
In this next showdown, we’ve got the Detroit Lions taking on the Dallas Cowboys. Detroit is coming out of their Bye but was shut out two weeks ago against the New England Patriots. Despite the two-week break from scoring, the Lions enter this matchup ranked 12th in total points, 9th in total offensive DVOA, 5th in rushing DVOA, and tied for 1st in sacks allowed. Their offensive line has been solid, the run game can get it done, and Jared Goff has been able to put the Lions in a position to score points early and often. The exception obviously being the Patriots matchup in which the Lions were missing D’Andre Swift, DJ Chark sat out, and Amon-Ra St. Brown played at less than 100% battling through an ankle injury.
The Cowboys enter this matchup ranked 6th in rushing DVOA, tied for 3rd in sacks allowed, and they’ve ranked 6th in total DVOA on defense. They’ve done a great job after their loss to the Bucs in week 1 of protecting the quarterback, rushing the ball, and playing solid defense. The over/under is set at 48 for these two teams and with Dak projected to start the offense should be more potent.
The Dallas defense has been allowing opposing offenses to score in the low 20’s and that’s exactly what the Lions are projected to score in this one with Dallas being favored by 7. I like the over and players on both sides.
TopProp Play: Prescott > Wilson, Lamb > Pittman Jr., St. Brown > Sutton, Swift > Mixon
SEA @ LAC o/u 52.5
The final matchup I’m targeting for fantasy points, props, and the like is between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Chargers. This is the highest over/under on the week so it should come as no surprise it made the list. The Seahawks enter this one 6th in points scores, 4th in total offensive DVOA, 12th in rushing, and 3rd in passing. Apparently, Geno Smith is the chef the Seahawks needed to really get this offense cooking! Pete Carroll is putting his offense up against Brandon Staley’s 14th ranked defense that has a rushing DVOA that ranks just 22nd. Seattle should have room to run with Kenneth Walker lll and Geno has proven time and time again in 2022 that he can move the offense efficiently and put points on the board.
The Chargers edged out the Broncos in week six to move to 4-2 on the year. They’re winning close games and they’ve had some key injuries to players like Keenan Allen, Rashawn Slater, and Joey Bosa. The defense has been middle of the pack in 2022, but its been the passing game that’s carried the Chargers. Los Angeles ranks 11th in pass DVOA, 3rd in passing yards, and tied for 1st in sacks allowed. This matchup should have Justin Herbert and company salivating as the Seahawks enter week seven with the 26th ranked Pass DVOA on defense. They haven’t been good and to really sweeten the deal, Keenan Allen is expected to return to practice this week.
It’s a high over/under but given the advantages both teams have with their offenses matching up with the opposing defenses, this has the potential to be a shootout.
TopProp Play: Herbert > Brady, Ekeler > CMC, Walker lll > Montgomery
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