With week six on our doorstep, we’re once again looking at matchups for fantasy, DFS, and prop betting. I’ve got three games that I’m excited to not only watch, but also bet this coming weekend; Buffalo at Kansas City, Dallas at Philadelphia, and Arizona at Seattle. These matchups include the top-3 offenses in the NFL through five weeks as well as two teams that are forced to score points because they just don’t play defense very well….just the way we like it!
BUF @ KC +2 o/u 53.5
We’re starting with the dessert here because we like to have fun. The last time these two teams met in the regular season, 58 points were scored and Josh Allen threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns. In their playoff matchup last season, Allen once again surpassed 300 yards but this time totaled four touchdowns while Patrick Mahomes secured 378 passing yards, four total touchdowns, and ultimately the win in a 42 to 36 overtime thriller.
These teams know each other very well and know how to light up the scoreboard. The implied point total for this game is 53.5, the highest on the week. The Chiefs come into this matchup beating the over/under 60% of the time and have a total +/- of 5. They’re beating the over at a decent rate so far in 2022. The Bills on the other hand have only beat their over once this season and sit at -7 below their implied point total on the year.
There’s context though for the Bills as to why they aren’t smashing the over through five games. That lies with their opponents. In weeks one, two, and five they dominated their opponents and took their foot off the gas pedal in the fourth quarter in each of those contests. They either didn’t need to score a ton of points and/or their opponents couldn’t do anything on offense. Enter the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs rank third in the NFL in total offensive DVOA, four spots ahead of the Bills. They’ve hit 27 points or more in all but one game this season, they’re sixth in the NFL in total yards, and they lead the league in points per game at 31.8. If you’re looking for offensive production this week, you’ll find it in this matchup.
TopProp Play: Patrick Mahomes > Justin Herbert, Josh Allen > Lamar Jackson, Travis Kelce > Mark Andrews
DAL @ PHI -5.5 o/u 45.5
This next matchup features the second ranked team in total yards and fourth in total points scored in the Philadelphia Eagles. They host the Dallas Cowboys who rank sixth in defensive DVOA which may be a bit inflated. Why is it inflated you ask? Great question! They’ve played the Bengals, Giants, Commanders, and Rams who have had massive struggles along their respective offensive lines. Three of those teams rank 25th or worse in offensive DVOA. The Cowboys are doing what they’re supposed to do against worse teams but they’ll be tested in this matchup against the Eagles who rank first in pass blocking and 11th in run blocking per PFF.
Another factor for why I’m buying in to a lot of points being scored is the recent history between these two franchises. Much like the Bills and Chiefs, these teams know each other well and know how to put up points on one another. In two matchups in 2021, the Eagles and Cowboys scored a combined 62 points in week three and 77 points in week 18. We may have another week of Cooper Rush, but he’s been ok for this offense leading Dallas to 20 or more points in each of his four starts. 20 is the Cowboy’s implied point total for week six and I’m confident they’ll beat that with ease in order to keep pace with the Eagles in this one.
TopProp Play: Jalen Hurts > Lamar Jackson, CeeDee Lamb > Amari Cooper, AJ Brown > Mike Williams
ARI @ SEA +2.5 o/u 47
The final matchup we’re going after this week features two of the absolute worst defenses in the NFL this season. The Cardinals grade out to 32nd in the NFL in total defense with Seattle close behind ranking 30th per PFF. In terms of defensive DVOA, these teams both rank 26th or worst. The offenses should face minimal resistance.
On offense, the Seahawks enter week six with the highest graded passing attack per PFF with the Cardinals boasting the third highest run grade. Those stats check out if you’ve seen Geno Smith’s resurgence this season and Kyler who always seems to get it done on the ground.
Let’s hear it for poor defensive play! Take the over in this game and bet your props appropriately.
TopProp Play: Kyler Murray > Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown > Jaylen Waddle, Geno Smith > Russell Wilson
For more NFL, Fantasy Football, and betting content follow me over on Twitter @58WKingPodcast. Good luck this weekend!