PIT @ CLE (-5)
Our Thursday Night matchup this week does not have a high implied point total (38) and it doesn’t feature two very prolific offenses. However, it does feature the top ranked Browns rushing offense going up against a Steelers team that has allowed 257 rushing yards through their first two games. That doesn’t bode well for the Steelers and certainly factors into the Browns being favored in week three. This game has the recipe for a lot of Nick Chubb which is why I’m taking Chubb over Najee Harris in this matchup. Chubb has also come out of the gate strong in 2022 averaging 5.8 yards per carry while Najee is well below league average at 2.9 yards per carry.
This game also features two top-30 wide receivers in Diontae Johnson and Amari Cooper. Through two weeks, Johnson has compiled a 30% target share and 9.7 yard ADOT. Meanwhile, Cooper’s target share is at 28% with a 10.9 yard ADOT. While Cooper currently sits nine spots ahead of Johnson on the season, I’m taking Diontae Johnson in this matchup. Cleveland is currently favored to win by five points and will most likely employ a heavy running approach. That should favor Pittsburgh’s passing attack which benefits Diontae Johnson’s large target share and playmaking ability.
TopProp play: Diontae Johnson > Amari Cooper
TopProp play: Nick Chubb > Najee Harris