The 2022 season can best be summed up with one word: volatile. The Colts are 0-1-1, the Bengals are 0-2, and the Jaguars are leading the AFC South at 1-1 as the only team in the division with a win. Despite the volatility, early NFL action has been exciting and has given us some familiar teams under the spotlight this weekend with a couple of playoff hopeful franchises on the side. The Bills travel to the undefeated Dolphins, the Colts host the Chiefs, the Lions head to Minnesota, and the Bengals take on the Jets in New York. We’ve got a handful of recommendations from each of those matchups.
The first play is Josh Allen over Patrick Mahomes. The justification here lies with the opposition for both the Bills and the Chiefs. Kansas City plays the Colts who only scored 20 points against the Houston Texans in a week 1 overtime tie and were shut out against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even if the Colts have their offense firing on all cylinders, that likely means they're running through Jonathan Taylor and the score will be relatively low.
The Bills on the other hand face a Miami Dolphins team that scored 42 points in a shoot out against the Baltimore Ravens. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle finished with over 170 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Bills do field a much better defense so far in 2022. However, Buffalo will be without S Micah Hyde, CB Dane Jackson, DT Ed Oliver, and DT Jordan Phillips. S Jordan Poyer was also limited this week with a foot injury. All of that obviously favors the Dolphins which should improve their chances at keeping pace with the Bills offense and ensure Sean McDermott and company keep their foot on the gas pedal.
TopProp play: Josh Allen > Patrick Mahomes (+1.5)
The next pick is between Stefon Diggs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Much like Josh Allen, the argument for Diggs over St. Brown is that the Bills will be going full throttle for four quarters against an explosive offense. St. Brown gets the 2 points in this matchup, but the Bills will likely be leaning on Diggs again this week as Gabe Davis is still recovering from an ankle injury and Dawson Knox is nursing a mild foot sprain.
TopProp play: Stefon Diggs > Amon-Ra St. Brown (+2)
The third and final play is rookie Garrett Wilson over Tee Higgins. Last week, we saw Garrett Wilson receive a 34% target share en route to eight receptions, 102 receiving yards, and two touchdowns day. Tee Higgins has only logged one full game so far in 2022 and compiled just 71 receiving yards in that game. Higgins also lines up opposite Ja’Marr Chase who demands close to a 30% target share every week. The Bengals are also favored to win their matchup against the Jets by six points at the time of writing this which should put the ball in the hands of Joe Flacco who clearly favors Wilson over Elijah Moore and Corey Davis so far this season. You even get an extra 2.5 points in this head-to-head!
TopProp play: Garrett Wilson (+2.5) > Tee Higgins