We are fast approaching the end of the 2022 regular season. We’ve got almost four full months of football in the rearview mirror. Also in the rearview mirror are my week 15 picks; JAX @ DAL and PHI @ CHI. In those matchups, the Eagles and Bears managed just 45 points (missing their over by 4) while the Jaguars and Cowboys crushed their over by 27 points scoring a combined 74! This week, I’ve got just one game I feel good about; SEA @ KC. It’s an ugly slate impacted by weather, injuries, and just a lot of tough matchups.
SEA @ KC (-9.5) over/under 48.5
I’m putting all of my eggs into one basket with this matchup between the Seahawks and Chiefs. At the time of writing this, the over/under is set at 48.5. These teams offer us something we love to see when chasing points…..bad defensive play. Over the course of the last four weeks, the Seahawks have the 29th ranked defense while the Chiefs rank 20th. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs rank 7th on offense in that span with the Seahawks coming in at 16th. Perfect! Both teams are capable of scoring and allowing a ton of points.
Additionally, both of these teams are in the middle of playoff battles and neither can afford a loss. The Chiefs are fighting for the number one seed in the AFC and that first round bye. Seattle is currently sitting in the 8th seed chasing the Washington Commanders for the final playoff spot in the NFC. This game is important and there’s no reason to believe either offense will relent or be stopped which gives me a good amount of confidence in a few positional matchups this week.
The first is at the quarterback position and involves arguably the best player at the position in Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the overall QB2 on the year trailing only Jalen Hurts and averages the second most fantasy points per game (26). There are two players also in the ~26 points/game range and that’s Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. Hurts is out this week with a sprained shoulder and Allen gets a matchup with the Chicago Bears that has an implied point total of just 40.5. I believe the Seahawks scoring more points than the Bears will lead to a more productive offensive day from Kansas City.
Play: Patrick Mahomes > Josh Allen
The tight end position remains in shambles. Travis Kelce has almost 100 more half-PPR fantasy points than the next tight end. For additional context, Taysom Hill is the overall TE6 on the year. It’s gross no matter which way you look at it and why I’d take Kelce over the field once against in week 16.
Play: Travis Kelce > The Field
The final play is DK Metcalf over Christian Kirk. These two receivers have settled in at the back end of the WR1 (top-12) territory. Kirk ranks 10th on the year with DK coming in as the WR14. I like DK over Kirk this week because Tyler Lockett will not be suiting up this week which almost certainly means more targets in a matchup with a high implied point total. Additionally, Kirk gets the New York Jets defense which is the second toughest matchup for wide receivers on the season.
Play: DK Metcalf > Christian Kirk
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