Week 5 Update:
Justin Herbert + 6 vs. Josh Allen. Josh Allen exploded in the first few drives with bomb TDs to Gabe Davis and Herbert just couldn't catch back up. Tough L.
Joe Burrow vs. Kyler Murray +1.5. Closest loss of the season as the juice got me. Murray struggled all game, and Joe Burrow has sorely missed Tee Higgins.
Aaron Rodgers + 2 Vs. Tom Brady. Classic W. Even 2 points aren't enough for Rodgers' weapons to match Tom Brady's right now.
Running Season Record: 9-6
Week 6 Matchups:
Breece Hall +1.5 Vs. Aaron Jones
If the Packers are going to win this game against the Jets, they need to heavily involve Aaron Jones. In wins this season, Jones has averaged 14 carries per game. In losses, however, he's averaged 9 carries.
As for Breece Hall, he's coming off a stellar game to the tune of 197 total yards and a TD where he saw a season-high in snaps. Both are electric backs who share backfields with capable teammates in AJ Dillon and Michael Carter, respectively.
Aaron Jones still has game-breaking efficiency metrics, ranking 3rd among RBs in true yards per carry, 3rd in yards per touch, 3rd in breakaway run rate, 3rd in breakaway runs, and is 2nd among RBs in expected points added. He may be turning 28 in a few months, but doesn't look like he's lost any juice. In fact, we've seen 15 touches every game for Jones since Week 2. I don't anticipate that changing. In fact, we've seen AJ Dillon's usage dip each of the past few weeks.
Breece Hall, the first rookie running back selected in the 2022 draft, fills the efficiency stat sheet so far this season. Hall ranks 2nd in yards per touch, 2nd in breakaway run rate, 3rd in breakaway runs, 6th in yards created per touch, and 3rd in yards per route run. Hall does it all well and is already at the highest level in the league. The question for Hall is how the game script may affect Hall's role in Week 6 with the Packers as +7.5 favorites at home in Lambeau.
Final Pick: Breece Hall +1.5. Give me the points in what I view as a fairly even matchup between two dynamic running backs.
Ja'Marr Chase +2.5 Vs. Stefon Diggs
These two top-tier wide receivers were consensus first-round picks in fantasy drafts all of two months ago. And while Stefon Diggs has delivered, some fantasy managers are frustrated by Ja'Marr Chase's production. Outside of finishing 4th among WRs in fantasy points in Week 1, Chase has finished outside the top 25 of Wide Receivers every week. Instead, Diggs has three top-7 weeks, while also finishing no lower than 37th weekly among wide receivers. But these receivers are much closer than what the stats indicate.
| Stefon Diggs | Ja'Marr Chase |
Target Share | 26.7% | 28% |
Expected Fantasy Pts/Gm | 19.2 | 18.6 |
Red Zone Targets | 11 | 11 |
Air Yards Share | 32.5% | 33.9% |
True Catch Rate | 88.6% | 88.9% |
Yards Per Route Run | 3.02 | 1.70 |
As you can tell, the main difference is that Ja'Marr Chase has felt the wrong side of variance and Diggs has felt some spike weeks early in the season. Chase's matchup also seems intriguing in Week 6 as Marshon Lattimore has been ruled out for the game.
Final Pick: Ja'Marr Chase +2.5. With Tee Higgins questionable and no Lattimore, Chase should command an elite target share yet again. I'll take the juice.
DK Metcalf +1.5 Vs. Marquise Brown
So far, Marquise Brown holds every advantage over DK Metcalf: targets, receptions, yards, TDs, and fantasy points per game. And with one week left before DeAndre Hopkins comes back from suspension, we should expect "Hollywood" to continue with elite involvement in the Arizona Cardinals offense.
Geno Smith, however, has been a surprising development this season. If you remember from the offseason, the Quarterback competition between Drew Lock and Geno Smith came down to how effectively the quarterback could get the ball to both Metcalf and Lockett-- and Geno has done just that. Metcalf has no fewer than 6 targets in each game so far this season and has at least 8 targets in each of the last 3 games, including a Week 3 game where he had 5 RedZone targets. In fact, in each of the last 3 weeks, Metcalf has not finished lower than WR18. Metcalf is thriving downfield, with the 7th most Air Yards, 5th most deep targets, and 11th in Air Yards Share among wide receivers. There doesn't seem like a major downgrade from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith so far this year.
As for Marquise Brown, he's second in targets, 4th in receptions, 5th in TDs, 6th in receiving yards, and 7th in fantasy points per game. Brown's been thriving on the Cardinals' offense, mixing in low aDot plays (WR79 in average target distance) while also ranking 10th among receivers in deep targets. He plays all over the field in various formations running a diverse route tree. It's clear that Brown is Kyler Murray's favorite target-- so we'll see how that sustains next week when DeAndre Hopkins returns.
Final Pick: Marquise Brown. Just not enough juice for me to go with Metcalf, who's finished as WR12 or better just once this season. Brown has three such games so far.
You can follow me on Twitter @FFStalder for more!
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