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Sunday Scaries: Week 18

Week 18 Matchups:

Joe Burrow +2 vs. Josh Allen

This is the matchup we only got a glimpse of on Monday night before the Damar Hamlin injury.

Joe Burrow, currently the fourth best QB in terms of fantasy points per game, has impressed this season with 35 passing touchdowns, ranking him second among all QBs. His efficiency has been top notch, as he boasts the highest passer accuracy rating and the second highest true passer rating among QBs, as well as a fifth place ranking in true completion

percentage. Burrow has consistently performed at a high level, finishing as a top-6 QB in eight different weeks. In his previous game against Baltimore, he completed 69% of his passes, threw for 217 yards, and scored 2 touchdowns, ultimately finishing as the eighth best QB for the week.

On the other hand, Josh Allen has been the third best QB in terms of fantasy points per game, after finishing as the top scoring QB in terms of fantasy points per game in each of the past two seasons. While Allen is known for going for the big plays and "homerun" balls, this style of play has resulted in lower efficiency statistics. He ranks within the top five among QBs in bestball points added, fantasy points per drop back, and expected fantasy points, but falls to 20th or lower in categories such as accuracy rating, true completion percentage, pressure completion percentage, red zone completion percentage, and clean pocket completion percentage. He is also in the top three among QBs in terms of danger plays and interceptable passes. In his last matchup against the New England Patriots, Allen finished as the 14th best QB for the week, his second worst performance of the season.

Final Pick: Joe Burrow. The slighted Bengals will be out for blood against a hapless Ravens team.

Darren Waller + 7.5 vs. Travis Kelce

It had been a while since we've seen Darren Waller perform at a high level. Despite finishing as the fifth best tight end in Week 17, his last top-five performance was back in Week 2. This recent success was even more surprising given that he was catching passes from unproven quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who finished as the third best QB for the week. Waller had 3 receptions for 72 yards (104 air yards) against the Kansas City Chiefs. While this season has been a difficult one for Waller, he still ranks as the eighth best tight end in terms of fantasy points per game, a drop from his ranking in previous seasons. Waller was also briefly injured earlier in the season, only playing about 10% of snaps in a game against the Chiefs.

On the other hand, Travis Kelce has solidified his position as the top overall tight end in 2022. He has scored a career-high 12 touchdowns so far this season and is only 116 receiving yards away from tying his career high in that category. Kelce also needs just one catch to match his career high for receptions, which he set in 2020. All of these accomplishments set him up for a strong finish to an already impressive year. While it's difficult to find any flaws in Kelce's game, he has not had a red zone target in each of the last three weeks.

Final Pick: Travis Kelce. 7.5 points is a massive amount to pass on, but this game could turn into an interdivisional slug fest-- with Kelce dead center. Let's not forget, Kelce's 4 TD game earlier this season came against Vegas.

Derrick Henry vs. Travis Etienne +5

Entering Week 18, Derrick Henry's fantasy points per game are averaging at a lower rate than they have since 2018. Despite this, he has still managed to rush for over 1400 yards for the third time in the last four years and score 10 or more touchdowns for the fifth consecutive season. Henry has also set a new career high in both receptions (32) and receiving yards (379). In his last game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he totaled 155 yards from scrimmage, scored a touchdown, and finished as the seventh best running back for the week.

Travis Etienne has also experienced success recently, following a mid-season slump. He has amassed 110 or more scrimmage yards in each of the last three games, finishing no worse than the 22nd best running back for the week. However, his role in the passing game is limited, as he has only caught a maximum of three passes in a single game this season. This limits his potential fantasy points and overall ceiling.

Final Pick: Derrick Henry. The juice isn't enough when Travis Etienne only went 17-32 on the ground and didn't catch a pass the last time he squared off against perhaps the most stout run defense in the NFL.

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Week 17 (2-1) Updates:

DeVonta Smith vs. Chris Olave +3. Easy W. DeVonta Smith was a top-1o WR yet again.

Amari Cooper vs. Terry McLaurin. I didn't think Cooper would win that handily with a 3-105-2 mark. Another big W.

Tyreek Hill vs. Davante Adams +2.5. Raise your hand if you had Jarrett Stidham as a top-3 QB against the 49ers. Oh, no one? I'll take the L, just like every other 3rd place team that had Davante Adams rostered during the fantasy playoffs.

Running Season Record: 30-18. - 62.5% correct on the season. Guaranteed above 50% for the regular season.

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