Thursday night games are often funky. You see sloppy football and a lack of scoring.
Doesn’t that sound a lot like the two teams squaring off Thursday? The Steelers and Browns will collide for what promises to be an ugly AFC North showdown.
How ugly are these offenses? Well, I hope you aren’t eating while you read this.
Pittsburgh has scored two offensive touchdowns in two weeks. Yikes. They rank 30th in average yards per play. Below league average in rushing yards per attempt. Last but not least they rank dead last in passing yards per attempt.
The Browns, even without Deshaun Watson aren’t as awful as the Steelers. Cleveland is leading the league in rushing while coming in 29th in passing yards. You’d expect that from a Jacoby Brissett-led offense.
What we care about today is the matchup on the TopProp app between Najee Harris and Nick Chubb.
These were two backs coming off the board in the first twenty picks of fantasy drafts. Now after two weeks, Chubb leads the NFL in fantasy points among RBs. Harris looks lost and frankly hurt behind a porous offensive line.
My lean here is simple. Despite Najee Harris getting two bonus points I can’t find a way in which he outscores Nick Chubb. Even with Chubb only seeing 53% of the Browns snaps I believe he will find the end zone and dominate this matchup.
In another TNF matchup, we pit Brown's WR Amari Cooper (and his one bonus point) against Steelers pass catcher Diontae Johnson.
TopProp Play: Chubb > Najee (+2)
Last week was a good one for the former Cowboy Cooper. He saw 34% targets per route run which was way up from 18% in week one. Anytime a wideout is seeing that kind of target action, you need to take notice. The Browns finally found Cooper instead of lesser talents like Donovan Peoples-Jones from the opener. A top 10 PPR finish has me thinking he could pull this off.
Meanwhile, it’s another solid start in terms of utilization for Johnson. He is seeing 30% of all Steeler targets but unfortunately, bad quarterback play has forced the offense to sputter before they find the end zone.
This is really a case of a team who doesn’t run very many plays (30th) and doesn’t drop back enough to give their weapons a chance (28th in dropbacks).
I think you can win some money tonight betting on Amari Cooper as most players will lean to Johnson thanks to his name and draft capital.
TopProp Play: Amari Cooper (+1) > Diontae Johnson
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