Drake's Takes - TNF Edition
Maybe your season-long fantasy teams are dead. So what? Time to sack up and do what real men do… gamble on Thursday Night Football.
We’ve got a fun one tonight in the Pacific Northwest between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. Let’s dig into some of my favorite head-to-head prop matchups where all we have to do is select the player who is score MORE fantasy points.
I’ve been working with TopProp for a long time and I’ve never seen a nine-point bonus. Throw a pair of running back workhorses, and you’ve got my attention.
Seattle’s Kenneth Walker returns from injury tonight and squares off in this prop against 49ers stud Christian McCaffrey.
Walker is a baller. I do not deny that. He’s shown an electric burst in his rookie campaign. There’s no doubt he’s going to be a fixture in fantasy football first rounds for years to come. But he’s no CMC.
I don’t expect Walker to step right back in off his ankle injury and tote the rock 25 times. Even if he did, he’s playing a 49ers defense that over the last four weeks has only allowed 247 yards rushing.
Now when I see nine-point bonuses thrown around I get nervous betting against them.
McCaffrey would have to bombard the Seattle defense as a runner and receiver for this to happen… oh wait, he can and will.
In the last month, Seattle has allowed 680 yards rushing – the second worst in the NFL.
They’ve also allowed six rushing touchdowns in that time. Mark me down for 100 yards rushing and a score.
Oh wait, he’s not done. Without Deebo Samuel I expect CMC to be used as a receiver. In his last two games, he’s scored as a pass catcher, for good measure I’m going to say he does tonight too.
CMC goes over 25 points and rolls vs Kenneth Walker.
Drake’s Take: Christian McCaffrey > Kenneth Walker (+9)
You guys know I love betting on these quarterback props. Tonight we’re giving Brock Purdy two bonus points vs Geno Smith.
Purdy is battling an oblique injury but is going to play.
The Niners have no issue letting the kid rip it. In Week 13 he threw the ball 37 times. I don’t think they’ll need to play that way this week. Seattle is a run funnel and it wouldn’t shock me if Purdy doesn’t even toss 25 passes.
Geno Smith on the other hand is going bombs away tonight. I expect him to come out throwing and tossing a pair of touchdowns. In the Week 2 matchup between these teams, Smith threw 30 times for only 197 yards and zero scores.
The 49ers' defense is no joke. The only QB to pass for more than 275 yards against them was some guy named Patrick Mahomes. But the run defense is even better! They haven’t given up 100 yards to an opposing offense since Week 7.
My money tonight is on the kid. This Niners squad is just rolling and I can’t see Seattle slowing them down at all.
Drake’s Take: Brock Purdy (+2) > Geno Smith
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