Happy Monday Everyone! Week 5 isn’t over quite yet. We’ve still got an AFC West showdown tonight as the Las Vegas Raiders travel to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The lines at press time listed the Chiefs as 7.5-point favorites and the team total shot up to 52. Someone in the desert seems to like points to be scored tonight. Whoever that person is, I like them.
Patrick Mahomes has dominated this division since entering the league, posting a 22-3 record to start his career.
Tonight, I expect Mahomes to exploit this Raiders secondary because, well that’s just what he does. Vegas has a mediocre at best secondary that is bottom 10 in many defensive categories such as:
- Explosive pass plays allowed
- Passing yards allowed per attempt
- Passer rating allowed
- Passing yards allowed.
You get the picture.
Tonight’s first prop matches Derek Carr (+5.5 bonus) vs Patrick Mahomes.
The KC signal caller is averaging 6.7 more points per game than Carr. That is mostly due to Mahomes’ 11 touchdowns. Yardage has been harder to come by. The Chiefs have only thrown for over 300 yards once this year and that was in Week 1.
Carr on the other hand has the best weapons he’s ever had and still, well looks like Derek Carr. He’s thrown a pair of touchdowns in 3 of 4 games but he’s also turned the ball over four times. Tonight Carr will need to expose a KC defense that entering Week 5 has allowed the most completions in the league.
For my money, I’m swiping on Patrick Mahomes. In 8 games vs the Raiders, he’s thrown for over 250 yards in all but one. It’s a lot of bonus points but really it’s just another TD over what Carr will do, which I’m fine with taking.
TopProp Play: Mahomes > Carr (+5.5)
Next up is Josh Jacobs vs Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+2.5 bonus points).
Jacobs is putting up monster usage performances. He’s handling 80% of the Raiders' rushing attempts, and all of their goal line work, and has caught 5 passes in each of the last two contests.
CEH on the other hand is living off the goal line work. He has five touchdowns while seeing roller coaster rushing yardage totals. I’m not as down on Edwards-Helaire as others in the fantasy community. He’s a solid player on a great offense. If they want to feed him the rock who are we to say no?
For me this contest is simple, if the Chiefs jump out to an early lead will Jacobs be able to sustain his workload? He only had one game over 70 yards rushing. I can easily see the Raiders playing catch up and they go away from the run game.
For that reason, I’m taking CEH and the bonus points tonight!
TopProp Play: CEH (+2.5) > Jacobs
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Good luck everyone!