Drake's Takes - MNF Mexico Edition
Happy Monday! I know you’re all eager to cheer on Team USA but let’s be honest you really just want to watch football.
More importantly, you want to BET on football!
Monday Night Football features the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals from Mexico City.
There’s a lot of uncertainty with this game. The Cardinals are without quarterback Kyler Murray and Hollywood Brown. This should be a 49ers route.
But we don’t care who wins, we just want to smash props so let’s go.
There are some tough lines on the TopProp app so I’m digging around for plays I think are locks.
I love Rondale Moore (+1 bonus) over Brandon Aiyuk tonight.
Moore is the one constant in a receiver group full of uncertainty.
Over his last three games, he’s averaging over 10 targets.
That type of focus in the passing game has allowed him to also 18.9 PPR points in that same three-game span.
It’s a positive that Moore shined last week with Colt McCoy under center. His 9-94 performance on 13 targets should give prop bettors confidence tonight.
Aiyuk is no slouch. He’s participated in 100% of the 49ers routes in the last two games. In Week 10 he had a team-leading 45% of teams air yards.
There are just too many mouths to feed in San Francisco. We aren’t sure which star will be fed that night. I have a feeling Deebo Samuel gets the squeaky wheel treatment tonight after a down week in his return.
TopProp Play: Rondale Moore (+1) > Brandon Aiyuk
For my second play, I head to the tight end room. This is interesting. George Kittle saw his targets per route run drop to 7% last week. His targets on third down also shrunk. Maybe that’s just game flow? Maybe it’s like I said the Niners have too many weapons.
Tonight’s prop matches Kittle vs Arizona rookie Trey McBride (+5.5 bonus).
McBride was the Mackey award winner in college. He takes over for Zach Ertz who was lost for the season with an injury. This kid can catch the football. We also know he’s going to see the field a ton.
In relief of Ertz, McBride ran 76% of the Cards routes. That type of work often leads to great results. The issue here will be can Colt McCoy find him?
For my money tonight I’m going to bet he can’t. Even with the healthy bonus, I’m going to stick with Kittle. I think he finds the end zone tonight and wins the prop.
TopProp Play: Kittle > Trey McBridge (+5.5)
I hope you all have a great Thanksgiving and good luck tonight!
Be sure to follow us on Twitter at @DrakeFantasy and @TopPropFantasy so you won’t miss any of my plays this season.