Happy Monday! Let’s bet on some football.
While Week 13 provided us with plenty of great matchups this Monday night affair seems destined to disappoint. Two underachieving clubs with their own sets of unique issues set off to battle in the Sunshine state.
I want to start off the week right and that means hammering easy wins. I see one with this running back vs running back prop of Alvin Kamara vs Leonard Fournette (+3.5 bonus).
Since his 42.8 PPR performance in Week 8, Alvin Kamara hasn’t bested 50 yards rushing or receiving. His yardage totals have helped submarine his point totals also. The Saints stud has been held under 10 PPR points in three of the last four weeks.
Tonight Kamara faces a Bucs defense that enters Week 13 allowing the second-fewest points to opposing runners (16.4).
The masses will say, “Kamara isn’t a factor in the passing game anymore.” Well, he’s still seen 20 targets in his last four contests. The real factor holding Kamara down is a lack of touchdowns. He hasn’t scored since Week 8. The Saints as a team have scored only 50 points since Kamara last crossed the goal line. If New Orleans can get their act together it will lead to success and cash for us (and I guess them, but who cares about that?)
Leonard Fournette returns to the Bucs lineup after a week off with a hip issue. In his absence rookie, Rachaad White took the backfield and looked every bit like a bell cow back. The question we have to ask is will Fournette have a meaningful enough role coming off an injury to top Kamara?
I’m not convinced that Fournette behind a bad Bucs offensive line can outduel Kamara now that he’s sharing the workload. We aren’t sure what side of the split he’s even on. Rumors are swirling that the Bucs want to lean on White more and use Fournette in a more complimentary role.
With that my pick is simple.
Drake’s Take: Alvin Kamara > Leonard Fournette (+3.5)
Prop number two today is between a pair of Bucs wideouts. We’re betting on Chris Godwin vs Mike Evans (+2.5 bonus).
Typically this is a heavyweight fight (literally) between Mike Evans and Saints corner Marshon Lattimore. But the DB hasn’t played since Week 6 with an abdomen injury. At the time of this article, it’s unlikely Lattimore plays.
Even without a stud corner on Evans, I’m still fading him on this bet.
Tampa Bay has to get the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands FAST. Their offensive line is so beat up that they’ve resorted to playing a ton of quick game with Godwin being the major beneficiary.
Godwin has double-digit targets in every game but one dating back to Week 5. Last week he shined in a 12-catch and 110-yard performance.
Evans while still, a target hog of his own hasn't been the yardage monster of late. His receiving yards haven’t bested 55 yards since Week 8. This coincides with Tampa’s philosophy of shorter and quicker passes.
For all the excitement of a long Mike Evans catch, I’m easily putting my money on Chris Godwin tonight to cover the bet even with the 3.5 bonus points for Big Mike.
Drake's Take: Chris Godwin > Mike Evans (+2.5)
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