Welcome to the final Monday Night Football game of the season. I’ve been so happy to be able to connect with you and share the fun of TopProp Fantasy. Just because the regular season is ending doesn’t mean the betting is. We’re rolling all the way through the Super Bowl with our head-to-head points picks.
Tonight, in Cincinnati we’ve got a phenomenal matchup. Buffalo continues their hunt for the top overall seed in the AFC while the red-hot Bengals look to improve their seeding. I’m expecting absolute fireworks.
This isn’t one of those lazy bets where you simply say “take the over on everyone.” Nope here we need to select which players will outscore the others.
When I open the TopProp app all I see are marquee matchups. These two quarterbacks are absolutely on fire and we’re going to give Joe Burrow three bonus points at home? Oh baby!
Burrow will face a Bills defense that ranks 32nd in the NFL in points allowed to the quarterback per game at just 13.2. Will that slow down Burrow who has 25 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks? I doubt it. Those last two weeks were against two of the best defenses Cincy has faced all season in New England and Tampa Bay. Burrow still shredded.
Allen on the flip side gives us the running upside that is impossible to ignore. Allen has run for 40 or more yards in 11 games this season including three of his last four. That’s like getting a free touchdown every week.
I can’t help but think something is off though with this Bills passing game. Since Week 11 Allen has only thrown for over 260 yards once. His star wide receiver Stefon Diggs hasn’t topped 100 yards since Week 10. Diggs hasn’t cracked 11 fantasy points in a month. Something to monitor.
Tonight, even with the three bonus points I have to lean toward Allen. The rushing upside will negate Burrow’s free points. Allen can get there with passing scores and run one or two in. The upside there is too great for me to pass.
Drake’s Take: Josh Allen > Joe Burrow +3 bonus
Now we look at the wide receiver matchup. Ja’Marr Chase vs Stefon Diggs +1 bonus point.
I’m all in on Chase here.
These are who of the stingier defenses vs opposing fantasy wideouts but tonight I think we see the ball in the air a lot and these two players are on the receiving end.
Chase is a target monster. He’s seen 57 targets in the four games since returning from injury. That hasn’t resulted in monster numbers though. Defenses are clamping down and forcing the Bengals to beat them with Tee Higgins, which they have.
Diggs has looked lost in the Bills' offense of late. He’s gone three straight games without a touchdown, albeit there were two bad-weather games mixed in. But his targets over the last three weeks are 2-9-5. That’s not ideal.
I like Chase at home to go over 100 yards and score. The one bonus point isn’t enough for me to stack Bills in tonight’s props. Oh, I also need Chase in a season-long title game so I’m rooting for a big game for the Bengals ace.
Drake's Take: Ja'Marr Chase > Stefon Diggs +1 bonus
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Good luck.