We are one week into the playoffs, and we were already rewarded with several great matchups and several missed extra points from Brett Maher! If you bet the over in that DAL/TB game, may God have mercy on your bank roll.
Going into the divisional round I’ve got a couple of matchups to target; JAX @ KC (-8.5) and PHI (-7) @ NYG.
JAX @ KC (-8.5) over/under 51.5
The first matchup is between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Kansas City Chiefs. The over/under for this game is at 51.5, the highest on the weekend. Besides great hair, we’ve got a couple of things brewing here that I’m a huge fan of; good offenses and bad defenses. Jacksonville is top-10 in points scored in 2022 with the Chiefs still occupying the top spot. Conversely, the Chiefs finished the year 17th in defensive efficiency with the Jaguars all the way down at 26th. As far as covering the spread this season, the Jaguars are 11th with the Chiefs coming in at 13th.
I’m going with old reliable once again this week and taking Travis Kelce over all other TE’s. Kelce was the highest scoring TE in 2022 and outscored the second best TE by 86 half-PPR fantasy points. Positional advantage doesn’t even seem to cover just what Kelce is at the position. Barring a 2-3 touchdown performance from an Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert, or Dalton Shultz, Kelce should easily be the #1 TE on the week.
Play: Travis Kelce > All other TE’s
This second pick is a bold one by name alone. Lawrence ended the 2022 regular season on a tear, averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game from week 14 on. That was 2.5 point more per game than Joe Burrow and in a matchup where the Jaguars will likely be playing from behind, that 21+ points for Lawrence seems like a safe bet.
Play: Trevor Lawrence > Joe Burrow
PHI (-7) @ NYG over/under 48
The second matchup I’m highlighting this week features the Eagles and Giants with an over/under set at 48. This isn’t the highest or even the second highest implied point total on the week, but we’re getting one of the top scoring offenses in the league in the Eagles and a hot Giants offense coming off arguably Daniel Jones’ best performance in the NFL.
The Eagles carry the league’s third best offense into this matchup while the Giants finished the season with the 29th ranked defense in terms of efficiency. These teams met in week 14 and the Eagles put up 48 in a complete route of the Giants. There’s no reason to believe that Philly can’t replicate that performance and given how well Daniel Jones has played, the Giants should be able to score their share of points to hit this over. Given that, I’ve got a couple of plays I feel comfortable with in this Saturday night matchup.
From week 10 on, there was no QB better than Jalen Hurts in terms of fantasy points per game. Hurts averaged 29.7 which was 2.3 more than the next QB. Hurts’ 29.7 was also 6.3 more than what Josh Allen averaged in that stretch.
Play: Jalen Hurts > Josh Allen
I’m going all in here with my second pick and opting to go with the stack of Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown. I’m taking Brown over Chase this weekend and there’s a couple of reasons why. First, the Bengals have several weapons that can have 100+ through the air and multiple scores: Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. That’s a bit more narrow for Philly with just Brown and Smith who are on that level. The Bills are also the 26th worst matchup for the WR position this season while the Giants are the 12th best matchup.
Play: AJ Brown > Ja’Marr Chase
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